Who wants Peace here?
Finally,
USA and its allies fired missiles on Syria and gave so called punishment to
Assad regime for chemical attack. But, , if we look at
history, such actions remain as symbolic only. Elements of
both sides in this conflict don’t co-operate
with each other in actual peace building process. Therefore,
peace continues to be a mirage for Syria, since last 7 years.
….
After
a week of warnings and threats, finally USA, Britain and France fired more than
100 missiles on Syria, as a punishment for using chemical weapons in Douma. US President Donald Trump announced accomplishment of this
action. Britain and France also claimed, those missiles
destroyed stock of chemical weapons. But, Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad denied the destruction claim and said that
their Air defence system intercepted almost all missiles in time and as a
result, those missiles caused very little damage. This
warning-counter warning, a symbolic action has been a part
of Syria’s last seven years history. Sometimes
even there is a prediction of a high scale conflict between these two sides or
a chance of third world war. Everyone knows war could not
be affordable option for anyone. But, main question
remains, either of these side really wants peace?
Gone
March Syria’s civil war completed seven years. During Orange Spring in Arab world, some youth wrote graffiti’s on wall and government took action on them. It
started protests against Assad and it gathered momentum for democratic
rule. Actually, this protest has roots in five decade old
rule of Assad family and discontent against them in Syrian people.
Syria is Sunni majority country and Assad family is from Alwite, a sect
of Shia. Alwite consists only 10 per cent of Syrian
population; still Assad has a grip over the country with the help of military. Hafez Assad, father of Bashar al-Assad,
took power in 1969. Hafez and his brother Rifaat al-Assad did number of atrocities in Homs and Hama cities, in 1980s. Syrian people never forget those atrocities and these all
factors reflected in protests against Bashar al-Assad. Many elements wanted to take advantage of protests, hence
participated in Syrian civil war. Saudi Arabia, Qatar,
Turkey from west Asia were interested to dethrone Assad and they supported
different rebel groups. These countries got support from
USA and other western countries. Al-Qaeda
and other terrorist organizations got activated. Kurd
looked at the happenings as an opportunity for their independent country. All that happened rapidly and Islamic State emerged as a most
dangerous devil. At the beginning, Assad regime was in
danger. But, Iran gave strong hand of support to Assad and
then Russia intervened in a decisive manner. Now, Assad is
relatively stable and gaining his all lost ground.
So
far, Syria’s civil war saw all colors of world politics. But, this small country paid significant price for it. In this conflict, more than 4.5 lakhs
people were killed. According to Syrian Observatory for
Human Rights, till now 3,53,900 people have been killed, which includes more
than one lakh innocent citizens. Almost 56 thousand are
missing. This institute fears, one lakh more people have
died in this conflict, but might not come into light. In
the series of violation, 15 lakhs become handicapped. During
this 7 years, 55 lakhs people migrated to other countries and 6.3
lakh are internally displaced. Syria’s
population was little more over 2 Crores in 2011. It gives
us an idea of what kind of destruction has been happening in Syria.
Syria
is not a major oil producing country and there is little chance for trade. But, if we consider locations of Mediterranean Sea, Suez
Canal, west Asia, east Europe, then Syria has a significant geopolitical
importance. Iran is trying to expand its influence
throughout west Asia, from Syria. Russia had a naval base
there, and now it has increased its naval as well as air bases in Syria, to
keep watch on Mediterranean Sea and the region. Assad
regime is almost a pupil of Russia and Iran. USA and
western countries don’t want the exact thing.
Till last year, threat of Islamic State was more dangerous, so everyone
wants to eliminate the IS. Now, Islamic State’s existence is limited only in some parts of Syrian rural area. So, conflict of interest is in top gear, again. Last
week, Syrian military used chemical weapons against rebel in Douma, a suburb of
Damascus and USA-allies got a reason. Syria
had used chemical weapon in eastern part of Ghouta in 2013. Last
year, there was chemical attack on Khan Sheikhoun by Syrian army.
USA destroyer fired missiles on Syria. But, that
action, too, was symbolic. Since Obama’s
period, USA government is in confusion about direct intervention in Syria. According to one report, there was 70 chemical attacks in
Syria and 20 after Khan Sheikhoun. USA media claims, since
2011 there were 200 chemical attacks. But, US took action
for few missile attacks only.
In
such complex condition like Syria, only military action could not be sufficient. It needs to be combined with diplomatic and economic pressure. Although, USA, Britain and France attacked Syria on 14th
April, but they have their own limitations. The attack was
predictable, so Syria moved its fighter planes near Russian base, which was comparatively
safe. One of USA’s spying plane went
near Russian base and Russia expressed displeasure over it. On
diplomatic front, Russia used veto in UNSC, several times. Russia
and Western world has a tension over Sergei Kripal case. As
Trump announced, fate of nuclear deal with Iran will be decided on 12 May. So, confronting with Russia and Iran on different fronts,
diplomatic way to solve Syrian crisis will remain closed. Economically
USA is not in a position to sustain a major pressure. Now,
USA is in trade war with China. So, US economy is under
pressure. Any military action requires ample expenditure. Is US economy ready for it? Frederic Quo explained it, in his
article published in Asian Times. Due to Iraq war, US economy
has a load of 6 trillion USD. In US federal budget in
2017, government allocated 1.17 trillion USD, 109 billion
USD for transportation, 85 billion USD for education and 32 billion USD for
science. This total expenditure is very less than cost of
Iraq war. Debt load on US economy is, too, increasing.
So
far, Israel did not play any significant role in Syrian conflict.
But, Iran-Hezbollah nexus succeed in Syria and Iran’s influence is growing. So, it is not in
favor of Israel. Last month, Israel intercepted Iran’s one drone and it created tension between Israel and Iran. Israel fears, Hezbollah have a stock of one lakh 60 thousand
rockets and they can use it anytime. Israel’s
interception system is efficient. But, if we look at
numbers of rockets, the probability creates a chance of danger.
In
this conflict, every country and involved element have their own limitations
and all want peace. But, the cost of the peace remains
matter of debate. As per US initiative, in 2014-15 UN tried for peace through Geneva process. But,
Russia didn’t respond. Russia
organized conference in Sochi, with Iran and Turkey. But,
western countries were not part of that. Main point of
conflict between them is, whether Assad remains on power or not? But, what will
happen, if Assad steps down and Islamic state or such extremist organization
occupies this vacuum? Nobody has thought about this situation yet.
We have examples of Afghanistan, Libya. But, no one wants to compromise. If military
attacks increase, then again flow of migration will increase towards Europe. This flow will carry unrest, radicalization and terrorism. Are we ready for it?
Still,
there is no chance of compromise between USA and Russia. Both
sides are trying to increase influence and securing interests. They
are making plans for this purpose only. So it gives rise
to a question, who wants peace in Syria?
Original
article published in Maharashtra Times of 15 April 2018. You can see it
here.. https://maharashtratimes.indiatimes.com/editorial/ravivar-mata/us-strike-on-syria/articleshow/63763443.cms
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