A New Headache on the Northeastern Border

After the military coup in Myanmar in 2021, the situation has collapsed. The country is now trapped in a civil war. Myanmar shares a border with four important states of Northeast India. Hence, developments in Myanmar must be viewed from the perspective of stability in these four sensitive states. Along with that, Myanmar’s strategic importance cannot be ignored by India either from the viewpoint of Southeast Asia or China.

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For India, the issue of anti-national elements in the Northeast and their advantage from weak governance in neighboring countries has always been a constant headache. Over the last three decades, the nuisance of extremist organizations in the Northeastern states has reduced to a large extent. However, in recent years, the situation in Manipur and Nagaland has become alarming. At the same time, the 2021 coup in Myanmar and the intense conflict between the army and anti-military groups have ended the country’s stability. Therefore, apart from the violence in the Rakhine province and the infiltration of Rohingyas, other issues in Myanmar are also important for India’s national security, and it is essential to keep a close watch on them. Otherwise, through this conflict—which is currently being overlooked—anti-India international forces may once again try to spread unrest in Northeast India.

India and Myanmar (formerly Burma) share a 1,600-kilometer border across four states: Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, and Mizoram. Like India, Myanmar too was under British rule and gained independence in 1948. A parliamentary democracy was established there, but in 1962, under the leadership of General Ne Win, the military staged a coup and seized power. It was said that the coup was carried out due to fears of the country breaking apart during the civilian government. Since then, military control has remained firm, with the army continuing its oppression while ignoring international pressure. However, Myanmar is an ethnically diverse country, and in the 1960s, many ethnic minorities were demanding greater autonomy. The military used this as a justification for its coup. But these reasons remain valid even today, compounded further by military atrocities and consequent migration.

 

Military Oppression

Power in Myanmar remains concentrated in the hands of a few military officers. (Hence, the government there is known as a junta government.) Movements for democracy continued, but the army repeatedly crushed them. Pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi spent most of her life under house arrest. Eventually, the army held elections for the first time in 1990, in which Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) secured victory—even while she was under house arrest. This result revealed to the military leadership that their regime was not popular among the masses. As a result, they refused to accept the outcome and instead initiated a plan for “disciplined democracy.”

 

Attempts to Retain Power

In 2008, a new constitution was introduced. The provisions clearly ensured that power would never slip away from the military. Key ministries would remain under army control, 25% of seats in parliament would be reserved for the military, and the military would hold veto power over constitutional amendments. The elected government could only oversee civilian administration. One clause exposed the army’s real intentions: anyone sentenced to prison or married to a foreigner would be barred from becoming head of government. Since Suu Kyi had spent years under detention and was married to a British citizen, this clause was designed to keep her away from power. Thus, her party boycotted the 2010 elections, which were won by the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party. In 2015, Suu Kyi could not officially lead her party, but the NLD contested and, as expected, came to power. Suu Kyi did not become president but was given responsibility as State Counsellor.

 

Grip Begins to Loosen

Fresh elections were held again in November 2020. The NLD won 396 out of 476 seats, while the army-backed USDP managed only 33 seats. This outcome was a warning bell for the military. Claiming election fraud, the army staged a coup in February 2021, just before the new parliament could convene. Suu Kyi and other NLD leaders were detained, while several others went underground. Power was concentrated in the hands of military chief Min Aung Hlaing, who declared a state of emergency. Tens of thousands of citizens took to the streets to oppose the coup and demand the restoration of democracy. The military cracked down with force, killing over 600 people. Nationwide curfews and restrictions were imposed, and atrocities were committed in opposition villages. This fueled even more resentment and strengthened anti-military organizations.

 

Fierce Resistance Against the Army

Currently, more than 25 armed organizations are active in Myanmar. Most of them oppose the military, while some support it. Reports suggest that the military now controls less than 21% of the country’s territory. Groups like the PDF (People’s Defense Force) and KNU (Karen National Union) are gaining strength. After the coup, the PDF reportedly had 65,000 fighters, which has since grown to 85,000. In Shan State, several attacks have been carried out against the army using everything from bombs to drones. The Kayah province on the Thai border, Rakhine in the west, and Shan in the north have become major trouble spots for the army. In Shan State alone, more than 180 army posts were attacked in 2023.

 

The Rohingya Massacre

Myanmar drew global attention due to the genocide of the Rohingya Muslims. The Rakhine province has a large Rohingya Muslim population, while the majority are ethnic Bamar. The Bamar argue that Rohingyas arrived only after the British entered Myanmar in 1823, and therefore they are Bengalis without rights to citizenship. In 1982, the military passed a citizenship law defining “indigenous” people, excluding the Rohingyas. The Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) carried out attacks between October 2016 and August 2017, killing some soldiers. This triggered major clashes, and in retaliation, the military killed about 6,700 Rohingyas in August–September 2017. Over 700,000 fled, mainly to Bangladesh, which now hosts more than one million Rohingya refugees. In India’s border regions alone, about 170,000 Myanmar nationals have taken shelter, with many more entering illegally. In Thailand too, more than 500,000 Myanmar citizens have sought refuge.

 

Alienated from the West

The Myanmar junta has consistently faced opposition from the UN and Western nations, which have imposed sanctions and demanded Suu Kyi’s release. But with close ties to China and Russia, Myanmar’s generals have resisted Western pressure. On March 28, a major earthquake hit Myanmar, killing 2,000 people and destroying thousands of buildings. Western nations offered aid, but questions arose about how and to whom the aid should be delivered. The junta feared the assistance might weaken their authority and therefore refused to accept it.

 

China’s Involvement

When analyzing Myanmar, China becomes the most critical factor. For China, Southeast Asia and access to the Indian Ocean are of immense strategic importance. Hence, China maintains ties not only with the military regime but also with the NLD and various anti-military groups. Regardless of who is fighting whom, all factions maintain contact with China. China has mediated in several ceasefires, including with the KNU in Shan State. The route through this area connects China’s Yunnan province directly to the Indian Ocean, offering an alternative to the Malacca Strait. Moreover, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), along with Myanmar’s reserves of rare minerals, crude oil, and natural gas, explains Beijing’s deepening involvement.

 

Strategic Importance for India

Myanmar is equally significant for India. In the 1990s, India adopted the “Look East” policy, and in 2014, the “Act East” policy to strengthen economic, cultural, and social ties with Southeast Asian nations. Myanmar serves as India’s gateway to this region. The India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway and the Kaladan Multimodal Transit project are being developed. Work is nearly complete in India and Thailand, but progress in Myanmar has stalled due to instability. In some places, workers on these projects have even been attacked. Myanmar also has abundant natural resources. India has maintained limited relations with the military government, but the growing instability and China’s expanding influence pose a challenge. The dense forests along the Indo-Myanmar border provide hideouts for anti-army groups. Cross-border smuggling and illegal networks have also flourished, involving timber, precious stones, and narcotics. Arms trafficking has also increased. The recent violence in Manipur has been linked to infiltrators from Myanmar. Overall, the deteriorating situation in Myanmar is deeply concerning for India, as it could further aggravate the longstanding headaches in the Northeast.