What Afghanistan Got?

A few days back, the first round of talks between the USA and Taliban held in Doha. First time since the invasion in Afghanistan, the USA held a formal talk with Taliban. In Doha, both sides have agreed for a framework of the peace process. It may be helpful for the USA’s retreat. If all these things go with this prediction and Taliban returns to the power, the real question arises, what Afghanistan got after the bloodshed of 17 years?

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A few days back, there was a talk between the USA and leaders of the Taliban. The talk continued for six days. Although there was no formal agreement, both sides agreed for a framework of the peace process. The USA came to the table to discuss with the Taliban is historical development. The USA has got stuck in Afghanistan for 18 years. If this peace talk goes in a positive direction, it will allow the USA to retreat from Afghanistan. This discussion will not only decide the timing of the USA retreat, but it will decide the future of Afghanistan too. Next stage of this process will be clear only after few days, but the retreat of the USA and return of Taliban to the power, without any major reform, it means the new political system will as same as it was in between 1996 and 2001. Then, what Afghanistan got after the bloodshed of these 17 years?

In cold war and even after the end of the cold war, Afghanistan suffered most any of other countries. Invasion of USSR, the conflict between the military of USSR and mujahidin, civil war and rise of Taliban, 5 years of Taliban regime and 17 years after the USA invasion, these are major phases of last four decades for Afghanistan. But, violence and bloodshed remain the same thread for each phase. Taliban captured Afghanistan power in 1996. Then only three countries, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Pakistan had given recognition to the Taliban regime. Although the USA didn’t recognise the Taliban regime, it didn’t include Taliban in the list of terrorist organisation. Taliban gave shelter to Osama bin Laden, number one enemy of the USA, the situation changed. After 9/11, the USA invaded Afghanistan and began Operation Enduring Freedom. Within a few days, the USA and allies toppled Taliban regime. But, the USA entangled in bogginess of Afghanistan and it never ends. Since then, it is more than 6000 days, the USA military is still in Afghanistan and fighting against terrorism. This duration is much more than the Vietnam war. As the USA casualties had increased, in 2008-09, pressure for a retreat from the US citizens increased. So, then the USA president Barak Obama planned for retreat and most of the allied force left Afghanistan in 2014. But, there is a limited number of allied forces are in Afghanistan, which includes 14,000 US troops. These troops involved in only anti-terrorist operations and advice-training to Afghan forces. President Donald Trump is still forcing for complete retreat. In December 2018, he announced a retreat from Syria and Afghanistan. Some report suggests, out of 14,000 troops, 7000 may return to the USA.

Invasion in Afghanistan and Iraq has cost much for the US treasury. Till today, the USA has expended $ 6 trillion, for these both operations. For Afghanistan, the USA has to expend more than $ 50 billion, per year. More than 5 lakh people have lost their lives in Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan, since 2001. It includes more than 7000 US troops. After 2014, returns of allied forces, more than 45,000 Afghan troops have been killed in attacks. Ashraf Ghani government claims, this government controlled more than 65 per cent of the country. While Taliban claims, it controls more than 70 per cent. This statistics may vary, but the fact is the situation is not in the US control. The USA has realised this fact 7-8 years ago itself. Hence, it was trying for the Afghan government and the Taliban peace process. For this attempt, the USA introduced concepts like ‘good Taliban, bad Taliban’. It had even pressurised Pakistan, which can bring Taliban to the discussion table. The USA was unsuccessful. Last year, Afghan president Ashraf Ghani announced a cease-fire. It was an attempt for a peace process. But, Taliban remains firm on their stand, that current Afghan regime is a Puppet of the USA. So, these attempts didn’t fulfil the wishes of the USA leadership. Russia organised a conference in November 2018 for peace in Afghanistan. First time in history, Taliban was present at an international forum. Taliban representative was firm with the US retreat. Taliban representative told that for the peace process means two phases. In the first phase discussion with the USA for their withdrawal and the second phase is about the Afghan political system. The representative proposed some conditions too, which includes a declaration of the timetable of US retreat, recognition to Taliban’s political office of Doha. The second phase will be for the political system, which includes the Afghan constitution, political system. He told that discussion for the political system will be only with Afghan groups only.

With this background, a few days back discussion between the US representative Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban representatives, in Doha. It lasts for six days. Before this talk, Khalilzad had gone to Pakistan, China, Russia, Central Asian countries, to create an environment for the peace process. During this talk, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Co-founder of Taliban, was in Qatar. Although, he didn’t involve directly in the talk. But, his presence was significant and it shows the seriousness of the Taliban. One more thing, Baradar was in Pakistan prison and Pakistan released him a few months back. As per some reports, Khalilzad had discussed with Pakistan authority for release of Baradar. Exact details of these talk is a secret till today, but the framework of the peace process has been finalised. Peaceful Afghanistan is the basic condition from the US side. One more condition the USA proposed, it was Taliban should not have any relation with Al-Qaeda and ISIS. The relation between the Taliban and ISIS is hostile, so it will not be a problem. But, will Taliban agree to break its tie-up with Al-Qaeda? Taliban has been divided into many groups. So, will Taliban leadership unify their all fractions to fulfil the US condition, to keep away Al-Qaeda? Afghan spokesperson told, This discussion will not get progress, till the USA don’t declare detailed programme of retreat. His statement was just to buy time, but the real challenge is to a break-up between the Taliban and Al-Qaeda. Trump has been claiming, due to the US military pressure, the Taliban agreed for the peace process. But, he has more hurry for retreat.

If the USA left Afghanistan, China-Pakistan-Russia, the trio will occupy the vacuum. China has been investing heavily in different projects, like copper mines, rail projects. The total value of natural resources in Afghanistan is much more than $ 1 trillion. Afghanistan government claims this value is about $ 3 trillion. Chine eyes on these resources. Russia too wants strategic gains, which it will get with Afghanistan. Therefore, it took initiative for international for Afghanistan. Pakistan always favours for unstable Afghanistan, which adds its nuisance value. Pakistan’s Army and ISI have given all kind of help for the Taliban. Even, many Taliban leaders have been living in Baluchistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Without the consent of the Pakistani army’s consent, it could not be possible. So, Pakistan has become most active for now.

India has played a very active role in Afghanistan, in the last 17 years. India has built infrastructure projects, irrigation projects, highways. Even India has built the building of the Parliament of Afghanistan. India has given millions of dollars for the education field of Afghanistan. Common Afghan people know India’s all help and India has been a brand in Afghanistan. But, the situation has been changing and we could not keep our say in this process, our efforts for 17 years will go in vain. So, India has to keep a close watch on these developments.

These whole developments have been important for the Afghan people. It will be decisive for their future. But, if fundamentalist regime of Taliban is returning in Afghanistan, then why Afghanistan experienced bloodshed for 17 years, will remains unanswered.

This article originally published in Maharashtra Times, dated 02 February 2019. You can see this article at - https://maharashtratimes.indiatimes.com/editorial/ravivar-mata/what-did-afghanistan-get/articleshow/67811909.cms