New 'tsunami' in the Gulf

Israel and the United Arab Emirates have reached a historic agreement to start diplomatic relations, and there are signs of new changes in West Asia. At the same time, relations between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have been strained. Thus, the boundaries between Saudi Arabia and the new Iran-Turkey equations against them are becoming clearer.

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The first fortnight of August was marked by upheaval for West Asia, which are constantly on the brink of unrest and instability. It is equally important for India, too. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has decided to open diplomatic relations with Israel, the number one enemy of West Asian countries. At the same time, Pakistan, which has been embroiled in controversy over the Kashmir issue, has signalled that it has given up on Saudi Arabia. Pakistan, which has been under Chinese rule for several years, has now adopted a policy of joining hands with Iran, Turkey and Malaysia. Thus, the division in West Asia, which began with the civil war between Syria and Yemen, seems to be becoming even clearer.

The creation of Israel after World War II is a blow to the Muslim world in West Asia. Israel's position has remained the same after five wars. Apart from Egypt and Jordan, other Muslim countries did not formally approve of Israel's existence. Egypt first signed a peace treaty in 1979, when it was expelled from the Muslim world. In 1981, the then President of Egypt Anwar Sadat was assassinated. The treaty was signed by Egypt to regain territory lost in the 1967 war. Israel and Palestine signed the Oslo Accords in 1993, followed by Jordan in 1994. Israel will then begin diplomatic relations with the first Gulf state in the form of UAE. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed of the UAE took the initiative. The Arab states had agreed to ratify Israel in 2002, while Saudi Arabia had also discussed relations with Israel a few years ago. Saudi Arabia has not commented on the UAE's relations. So, Oman, Bahrain, Morocco are likely to follow in the footsteps of the UAE soon. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas has condemned the deal, which has been betrayed by UAE. Hamas, which dominates the Gaza Strip, has reacted similarly. He noted that the agreement was reached on the condition that UAE sided with the Palestinians and that Israel would not establish new settlements in the Palestinian territories.

It will be important to see how this agreement is accepted by the local people as well. Israel's then-Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated in 1995 by a Jewish mob in anger over sending foreign ministers to Oman and Qatar. Egypt and Jordan share borders with Israel. So, the UAE agreement, which is far from Israel, has a different significance. The two countries have expressed interest in enhancing cooperation in areas such as technology, culture, investment and tourism, along with the corona vaccine. Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan has also spoken out about the deal. The Arab countries have a growing distrust of Iran, and in many places, covert wars have brought the two sides to face to face. The agreement is opposed by Iran and Turkey. Therefore, the possibility of attacks targeting the UAE by pro-Iranian terrorist organizations cannot be ruled out.

On the other hand, relations between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan have reached a tipping point. Once upon a time, Pakistan was trying to put pressure on the rest of the world to support the Muslim world in the form of Saudi Arabia. However, Pakistan is angry that Saudi Arabia did not take the initiative to convene a special meeting of the Council of Islamic Countries (OIC) on the Kashmir issue. The then Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj was invited to the OIC meeting in UAE last year. Pakistan had boycotted the meeting. Since then, Pakistan has been angry about the Saudi-led OIC. Turkey, Iran and Malaysia are expected to offer alternatives to Saudi Arabia's leadership. That is why Malaysia hosted a similar conference last year. Pakistan was trying to raise the issue of Kashmir from that platform. That was the time of the UN General Assembly. Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia handed over his special plane to Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan. However, upon learning that Pakistan was attending the conference in Malaysia, they withdrew the plane and Imran Khan had to return to Pakistan on a passenger plane.

In an interview to a news channel last week, Pakistan's Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi had said that "Saudi Arabia should convene a meeting of the Council of Islamic Countries on the Kashmir issue." If they can't, other Muslim countries will host the meeting. 'Pakistan's cash went to Iran, Turkey and Malaysia, which are opposed to Saudi Arabia. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has sided with Pakistan on the Kashmir issue. So, Iran is against the US and Saudi Arabia. As a result, Qureshi rushed to China as soon as he realized that relations with Saudi Arabia were deteriorating, and he was trying to get political and economic help from China.

Relations between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are old and Pakistan has been supported by Saudi Arabia many times, both economically and politically. Even in the 1971 war, Saudi Arabia helped every time, from the purchase of fighter jets to the release of prisoners of war. So, Saudi Arabia had in a way guaranteed military protection from Pakistan. In the 1970s, a large contingent of Pakistani troops was stationed in Saudi Arabia. So, even after Iraq swallowed Kuwait, it sent troops to defend Saudi Arabia. As the only nuclear-armed country in the Muslim world, Pakistan has consistently benefited from its relations with Saudi Arabia. With Pakistan on the brink of financial bankruptcy, Saudi Arabia provided त्यांना 6.2 billion in aid in 2018. Of that, 3 billion would be in the form of loans and २ 3.2 billion in the form of oil. Due to the current tensions, Saudi Arabia demanded immediate repayment of the loan. So, Pakistan repaid the amount last week and in a way has cut the ropes in the relations between the two countries.

The three countries, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey, are hostile on historical and cultural levels. While the Cold War between Iran and Saudi Arabia is well known, Erdogan wants to lead the Muslim world. That is why he has deliberately taken an anti-India stance on the Kashmir issue. However, the United States has been left behind by Saudi Arabia. Pakistan has been somewhat oblivious to the financial support it has received from China over the years. That is why in 2015, instead of taking part in the crackdown on Huthi rebels in Yemen, they dared to reject Saudi Arabia. Now, that has been added. However, so far the US, Saudi Arabia and China have broken the balance, Pakistan is completely dependent on China and this will be very dangerous for them as a country, analysts point out.

Both these events are important for India. Saudi Arabia had assured India that it would not allow India's oil supply to be disrupted after US sanctions halted oil imports from Iran. Even today, 18% of India's total oil imports come from Saudi Arabia. Now with the new economic reforms, Mohammed bin Salman is looking forward to investing in India. So, the friendship between the two allies, Israel and UAE, will only solve India's problem.