Europe’s Shift: A New Era of Militarization

 European countries are deeply fearful of Russia’s expansionist ambitions. As a result, there has been a significant rise in defense spending across Europe in recent years. These countries are also trying to reduce their dependency on the United States, and hence, leading nations are showing a clear inclination towards expanding their military strength.

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There seems to be no near-term resolution to the Russia–Ukraine war. Similarly, no one is prepared to guarantee lasting peace in the Gaza Strip. Along with these two major wars in the past 2–3 years, conflicts such as the India–Pakistan standoff and border skirmishes between Cambodia and Thailand have also erupted. Added to this are U.S. President Donald Trump’s continuous pressure in the name of import tariffs and global mistrust regarding China. Together, these factors are pushing countries across the world to once again prioritize defense. European nations too are following this trend — investing not only in increasing troop strength but also in modernizing weaponry and adopting new technology. This has led to a marked surge in European defense spending.

After World War II, Europe was the focal point of global politics. On one side were Western European countries under U.S. leadership, and on the other, Eastern communist nations under the Soviet Union. This division gave rise to NATO and the Warsaw Pact — two competing military alliances. Since then, NATO has been responsible for Europe’s security, and for decades Europe has remained largely dependent on the U.S. The collapse of the Soviet Union ended this rivalry, and globalization gained momentum. Especially in Europe, there was a wave of integration. But in recent years, this environment has been shaken. Opposing NATO’s expansion, Russia exerted pressure on Ukraine, ultimately invading it in February 2022. This invasion was the biggest blow to Europe’s post-WWII security assumptions. Meanwhile, with Trump’s rise to power in the U.S., European countries came under heavy criticism, with threats of U.S. withdrawal from NATO. Trump insisted that Europe must increase its own defense spending. At the same time, the center of global geopolitics shifted from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. Accordingly, the U.S. began treating China, not Russia, as its primary adversary. Still, due to Russia’s expansionist policies, Europe continues to see Russia as a grave threat. Thus, the perceived Russian threat, U.S. distraction, and Europe’s slow military reforms despite U.S. backing — these remain Europe’s major challenges. Now, however, change is underway. France, Germany, and other leading nations are boosting their defense expenditure.

 

Germany’s Military Push

Germany, a leading member of the European Union, has proposed raising defense spending to 5% of GDP. As per NATO’s guidelines, 3.5% of this would go to the military, while 1.5% would be used for defense-related infrastructure, said Germany’s new Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul. Currently, Germany spends 2.1% of GDP — around €90 billion — on defense. This is set to rise to €160 billion. Compared to 2023, Germany increased its defense spending by 28% in 2024. The German army currently has 182,000 soldiers, a number expected to grow to 203,000 by 2031, and some analysts predict it could even reach 240,000. Obsolete tanks, aircraft, and naval ships are being replaced with modern weapon systems. For this, Germany has set up a special fund of €100 billion.

France, too, began systematically increasing its defense budget in 2017. Its defense budget was €32 billion in 2017, and the plan was to double it by 2030. However, President Emmanuel Macron is working to achieve this goal by 2027 itself. Alongside Germany and France, Poland is also ramping up defense expenditure. Poland’s army, currently at 150,000 soldiers, is planned to be increased to 500,000, announced Prime Minister Donald Tusk. Poland is also investing in modern weaponry like advanced tanks, HIMARS rocket systems, drones, and F-35 fighter jets. Being a neighbor to Ukraine, Poland perceives a direct threat from Russia. In fact, Poland increased its defense spending by 31% in just one year.

Although not part of the EU, the UK — a key NATO member — is also boosting its air force capabilities by purchasing F-35 jets, even if it is not expanding troop numbers.

 

Russia’s Military Preparedness

Europe is fearful of Russia’s aggressive stance. Over the past decade, Russia’s defense spending has been alarming for Europe. In 2024, Russia spent $149 billion on defense — 38% higher than in 2023, and double compared to 2015. Currently, around 700,000 Russian soldiers are engaged in Ukraine, far more than at the start of the 2022 invasion. Russia has also accelerated its defense production in the past year — manufacturing 1,550 tanks and 5,700 armored vehicles. Compared to 2022, this is an increase of 220% and 150%, respectively. Long-range weapons production has increased by a staggering 435%, according to research reports.

 

The Proposal for a European Army

Amid this surge in military spending, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has called for the creation of a European Army. He proposed that such an army could consist of 1.5 million soldiers from across Europe, including the UK. A similar proposal was made in 1954 for a European Defense Community, but France rejected it at the time. The future of this proposal depends heavily on the progress of European integration. Still, challenges remain: countries like Ireland and Austria are neutral and would want to maintain their neutrality; the UK continues to depend heavily on the U.S.; and since the era of Charles de Gaulle, France has often chosen to act independently.

Economic Concerns in Germany

While troop expansion is planned, Germany is also considering mandatory military service for young adults. Under this proposal, 18-year-olds would be required to serve in the military for some time. This could provide Germany with 80,000 additional reserve troops over the next decade. Recruiting 20,000 per year may not cause major disruption, but if all 18-year-olds are drafted, experts fear it could significantly impact the German economy. Hence, Germany’s industrial sector is opposing the plan.

 

In summary, defense policy changes in Europe are a hot topic. A key fear driving this trend is the possibility that Russia may launch an attack on NATO countries after 2029. For now, Europe’s security remains heavily dependent on the United States, which has about 100,000 troops stationed in Europe and could deploy another 200,000 in emergencies. However, if U.S. focus shifts away, Europe will need to raise a force of at least 300,000 soldiers collectively. This burden could be distributed across the 29 European countries. Accordingly, preparations are already underway across the continent.