This result is not only about Turkey only

The presidential election of Turkey will now have a 'runoff', and the fate of the current president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, will be decided on it. However, if we consider Turkey's geopolitical, socio-strategic position on the world map, this result will have an impact on world politics as well. Given Turkey's stand on the Kashmir issue, India will also be watching the outcome.

 

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In the first round of Turkey's presidential election, no candidate, including incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, received 50 per cent of the vote. So, the first two candidates will have a re-election (runoff) on May 28. It is curious whether Erdogan wins this election. However, the world is paying attention to whether the power of Erdogan, who has dominated Turkey for two decades, will last. Given Turkey's geopolitical location and historical and socio-strategic position, the outcome of this election will have an impact on global politics as well.

Presidential elections were held in Turkey on May 14. Erdogan is being challenged by opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu. For the first time, a single candidate with the support of six opposition parties and the support of Kurdish organizations is facing a major challenge for Erdogan. In the results, Erdogan received 49.5 per cent of the vote, Kilicdaroglu 44.89 per cent, and third candidate Sinan Ogan received 5 per cent. Now the picture of the result will be clear on who will get the votes of Ogan in the 'runoff'.

 

Erdogan's policies, such as lowering interest rates by the central bank, have hit the Turkish economy hard. The rate of inflation there has reached 40-50 per cent. Last year this rate was recorded at 80 per cent. The rate of the Turkish currency 'Lira' has fallen. The unemployment rate has reached 10 per cent, and the public points out that this is a government figure. Such fundamental questions have troubled the Turkish people. Along with this, 50,000 people died in the earthquake that occurred on February 6. The Turkish government has been accused by the public of failing to provide relief during this time. In this, it is pointed out that the system has become ineffective due to corrupt administration. In addition, there are accusations that minorities are being stifled under Erdogan. In particular, ethnic Kurdish organizations, which make up around 15 per cent of Turkey's population, have been aggressive under Erdogan. The number of terrorist attacks in Turkey increased in 2015-16. Although the number of attacks has decreased in comparison, Kurdish organizations are still active today. The question is whether the Kurds will not support Erdogan, and this will fall on the path of his opponents. All these factors have affected Erdogan's popularity, making him one of the most challenging elections to date.

 

Ambition for leadership

 

Considering Turkey's history and geopolitical position, the importance of this election is obvious. After the collapse of the Ottoman Empire after the First World War, Turkey became a democracy. Mustafa Kemal Atatürk became the first president and ruled Turkey from 1923 to 1938. During this period, they adopted a policy of modernization like the Western countries. It gave rise to the idea of ​​secular nationalism and sovereignty in Turkey.

 

This is the foundation of the Turkish system, and it is being undermined under Erdogan. Erdogan emerged in 2000 and has been at the centre of power ever since. However, in 2016 there was a failed military coup attempt to overthrow him. After that, Erdogan, who strengthened his grip on power, changed the political system there in 2018. By abolishing the parliamentary democracy there, a presidential system was introduced. Hence, the post of Prime Minister was terminated. While Turkey is a country established as a 'soft power', Erdogan's ambition is to create influence as a 'hard power'. For this, they started to create an identity as the strongest Muslim country. As a result, his politics centred around religion and undermined the foundation of secular Turkey.

Turkish citizens are being shown the dream of bringing back the golden age of the Ottoman Empire. For this, Turkey is giving diplomatic support to Kosovo's independence from Serbia. Turkey's military involvement in Syria and Iraq is targeting the Kurds there. Turkey plays an important role in the issue of migrants in Europe. It is also said that Turkey is supporting some terrorist organizations.

 

The world's attention

Turkey's geographic location, divided between Asia and Europe, is also important. West Asia on one side, Europe on the other; To the north is the Black Sea, and to the west is the Mediterranean Sea. The importance of Turkey's position can be seen from the fact that major developments in world politics have taken place in this region in the last two decades. In this, as Turkey is a member country of NATO, it has a special importance. In terms of military size, Turkey ranks second in NATO after the United States. However, due to Erdogan's policies, Turkey's trend has been turning towards Russia for some time. During the current Ukraine war, Turkey's position is crucial for access to the Mediterranean if the Russian Navy wants to attack Ukraine. The close relationship between Putin and Erdogan is believed to be important for this.

The US imposed sanctions on Turkey after Turkey acquired the S-400 air defence system from Russia. Eastern European countries want to join NATO, but this entry is not possible without the consent of all the member countries. Finland joined NATO only after Turkey's consent, while Sweden's entry has been blocked by Turkey. In addition, the Turkish route is important for European migrant flows, especially for Asian migrants. Moreover, a large population of Turkey is scattered in Europe, and its pressure is also on European countries. Therefore, the European countries including the US are paying attention to Turkey's role.

 

The result is important for India

 

Turkey has ambitions to lead the Muslim countries, and this is also a headache for India. For many years, Turkey has been trying to pull the leadership of Muslim countries from Saudi Arabia. For this reason, efforts are being made to shed light on the history of the Ottoman Empire. After the Gulf countries boycotted Qatar a few years ago, Turkey supported Qatar. For this, he had joined hands with Iran. Turkey has also set up a military base in Qatar. Relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia were greatly strained by the assassination of Columnist Jamal Khashoggi.

While the Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, are trying to improve relations with Israel, Turkey views Israel with hostility. This has contributed to increasing Erdogan's popularity among the Arab public. Apart from that, it is pointed out that the Turkish military has the capability to counter Israel's military might. From this, the Turkey-Iran-Pakistan triangle came into existence. Sometimes Malaysia also joins these three countries.

With no support from Saudi Arabia, Erdogan has the support of an uneasy Pakistan. Hence, Erdogan has stuck his nose in the Kashmir issue. He raised this issue in the United Nations General Assembly. Also, in 2020, the issue of Kashmir was raised in a speech in the Parliament of Pakistan. It compared the struggle of the Turkish people in World War I with the violence of terrorists in Kashmir. Despite India's repeated objections, Turkey-Pakistan ties continue to grow. Fundamentalist forces in India are also said to be getting support from Turkey.

Against this backdrop, a runoff is taking place in Turkey. It will be important whether the votes received by Sinan Ogan will go to Erdogan or against him. Besides the continuation of Erdogan's power in Turkey, the Ukraine war, unrest in West Asia, and the situation in Europe will also affect this election.