'Chinese' winds in the Gulf

After the successful settlement between Saudi Arabia and Iran, China is looking at the Palestine issue. China's growing influence in West Asia over the years is noteworthy. China has created a unique position in these countries through trade and investment. However, if we consider the strategic partnership between Israel and the USA, it can be seen that China has a long way to go.

A few months ago, China succeeded in restoring diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Following that, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas made a three-day visit to China last week. During this visit, he tried to gain China's support for the demand for Palestinian statehood. Meanwhile, US-backed Israeli-Palestinian peace talks have been stalled for nine years. Now an issue has come up that whether China will try for peace talks between Israel-Palestine. China has been trying to fill the void after the US began to back down on issues in West Asia over the years. The question is whether China will fill the place of The USA in this situation.

 

The region of West Asia and North Africa is seen as a region connecting Europe and Asia. European countries continued to try to control the region, especially its ports so that trade between Europe and Asia could continue smoothly. Meanwhile, in the early twentieth century, crude oil deposits were discovered in the region and the region gained great importance in world politics. However, local people remained dissatisfied with the USA and the West on various issues, especially the issue of Palestine. There is a feeling that the USA invaded these countries, several times, for selfish reasons and that the regimes here are puppets of the West.

 

After the failed interventions in Iraq, Libya, and Syria, the USA began to focus on the Indo-Pacific region instead of West Asia. Also, the USA is now looking at Eastern Europe due to Russia's increasing activity.

 

As the USA's influence in the region is waning, China begins efforts to increase its presence in the region. China's policy is not to be directly involved in conflicts between two countries or within any country. At the same time, regardless of the mutual relations between these countries, China always tries to increase trade with both sides. China has tried the same way to increase its influence in West Asia.

 

China has had relations with the countries of West Asia for two thousand years. China's leaders often mention that the trade from that time is still going on. China appears to have made planned efforts to increase trade initially with West Asian countries in the 21st century and investment in recent years. These efforts are bearing fruit.

 

Trade between West Asia and China was $180 billion in 2019, rising to $259 billion in 2021. During the same period, trade between the USA and West Asian countries decreased from $120 billion to $80 billion. China ranks first in the import-export rankings of both Saudi Arabia and Iran. In the term of imports, China ranks first in the list of Egypt, the United Arab Emirates (the UAE), Jordan, and Kuwait.

 

The reason for increasing trade relations with countries in West Asia is because of fuel supply concerns. Since the 1980s, China has focused on manufacturing and become the world's largest exporter. For this, fuel supply is the most important requirement. China imported 43.92 crore tonnes of crude oil by sea in the year 2022. China accounts for 22.4 per cent of global crude oil imports, followed by the European Union with 22.1 per cent. In 2013, China overtook the US in the import of crude oil, and since 2017, China has topped the list. Therefore, to ensure an uninterrupted supply of fuel, China wants to increase the choice of suppliers and maintain friendly relations with them. In terms of oil imports, China is trying to increase the amount of oil supply from some countries in West Asia and North America to 70 per cent by 2030.

 

For this, in 2021, China signed an agreement with Iran for oil supply for 25 years, worth $400 billion. A similar agreement has been made with Saudi Arabia a few years ago. For the supply of natural gas, China signed Contracts with Qatar. China’s state-owned Sinopec in April bought a 1.25 per cent stake in a Qatari natural gas field. This transaction is worth $30 billion. From this, China will be supplied with 4 million tons of natural gas every year, which is 6 per cent of China's natural gas imports.

 

As trade on the one hand increases, China's investment in these countries is also increasing. China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project is now underway in 151 countries around the world. Most of the countries in West Asia and North Africa (MENA) are participating in this. China will invest more than $ one trillion in the infrastructure projects of these countries through this project. In the year 2022 alone, 23 per cent of the investments or contracts in the Belt and Road Initiative took place in West Asian countries. This includes the development of various ports and infrastructure. More than $10 billion have been invested in Iraq. Projects with a turnover of more than $400 billion are being considered in Iran. Egypt is investing in some projects including the Suez Canal. China has also invested $273 billion in Saudi Arabia between 2005 and 2022.

 

The Sino-Arab Conference was organized in Riyadh in December 2022. Xi Jinping attended the conference at that time. Until now, these countries, which depended on fuel supply, are now making efforts to strengthen their economy in ways other than fuel. Saudi Arabia has announced a vision for the year 2030. Oman has announced its ambition to build its economy on other options by 2040 and the United Arab Emirates by 2050. Other countries are also making similar efforts. China's cooperation and investment are important to these countries in these efforts.

 

At the same time, many countries, including China, are trying to reduce the influence of the US dollar in trade. China is also trying to trade with these countries in West Asia in their currency.

 

Due to this growing influence, the decision to restore diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia was announced at China's initiative. Now from China attention has been paid to the issue of Palestine. Palestinian President Mehmood Abbas visited China a few days ago. China's growing influence gives Palestinian leaders hope. Before the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, Palestine held large swaths of territory, including East Jerusalem. Palestine demands that China recognize and pursue the proposal of an independent Palestine with the territory. The US-initiated peace talks have been stalled since 2014. Efforts are being made to start this discussion with the initiative of China.

 

However, the real question is how much China's pressure will be accepted by Israel. Relations between China and Israel are also not distant. With a trade of $15 billion between them, China ranks third in Israel's trade list. However, the strategic and military partnership between the USA and Israel remains beyond controversy. While the USA has reduced its focus on West Asia, China has a long way to go when it comes to military bases in the region. Therefore, the question arises whether this influence of China will be enough to be decisive in the Israel-Palestine dispute, which is one of the most controversial issues in the world.