A New Chapter in Relentless War

October 7 marks the one-year anniversary of Hamas' attack on Israel. The war that followed continues and has expanded in scope. This continues to threaten to provoke war in the Middle East. At the same time, the Israeli-Palestinian problem persists seven decades later, and all elements are trying to politicize it with its help rather than seek a solution.

Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, and the new Israeli-Hamas war continues a year later; In fact, Lebanon and then Iran are also at war, threatening to provoke a major regional war. The international community asking both sides to be patient, so that the conflict may be limited or ended. The causes of hostility between Israel-Palestinian and Israeli-Muslim countries remain and the trust of both sides in a military solution to political issues remains.

More than 1,200 Israelis were killed and 251 people abducted in attacks by Hamas on October 7. (Some of these hostages were released. Some were killed during the operation, and 97 hostages are still held by Hamas.) After which Israel started a war in the Gaza Strip. More than 42,000 people have been killed in the Gaza Strip in a year-long crackdown. Israel claims to have killed more than 12,000 Hamas militants. According to the World Bank's April report, the damage in the Gaza Strip was $18.5 billion, while two million Palestinians have been displaced, about 62 per cent of their houses have been destroyed. This loss equals 97 per cent of the GDP combined by the Gaza Strip and the West Bank in 2022. 84 per cent of health facilities in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed. Power supply and water supply have been completely halted. Now, war has moved towards Lebanon. More than 2,000 people have been killed and more than a million displaced in Lebanon since Israel started military operation there. Israel's airstrike killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, a blow to Hezbollah as well as Iran, which supplies logistics to the militant groups. Iran launched missile attacks on Israel. Iran fired about 200 missiles at Israel. Israel's defence system destroyed most of these missiles in the air; The remaining missiles did not cause much damage, but the fact that Iran fired missiles at Israel from a distance of about 2,300 kilometers shows the increase in Iran's capabilities, which is increasing pressure on both sides to prevent the escalation of the war and the start of a major regional war.

The question of Gaza's future

While considering the future of the current war, one has to consider the future of the current war in two parts: Israel-Gaza and Israel-West Asia. The Gaza Strip along the Mediterranean has always been a headache for Israel. Hamas emerged in the Gaza Strip in the 1980s. It was Hamas that brought the anti-Israel activities of Palestinian organizations sheltered from other countries to the Gaza Strip. There was a second Palestinian uprising (Intifada) and Hamas's hold on the region was strengthened after that. It was clear that the Oslo Accord between Israel and the Palestinian Authority was not enough to resolve the issue. Hamas has dominated the Gaza Strip since the 2007 Palestinian Authority elections.

Now, even though Hamas has suffered heavy losses in Israel's actions, it cannot be assumed that these terrorists have been completely wiped out. In the current situation, no one can guarantee that the Palestinian organizations such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad will not get support in future. There is no consensus among Israelis, Palestinians and the international community on who will control the administration of the Gaza Strip in the coming days. The Israeli military has reached out to local influential figures and families; due to fear of Hamas, they have all refused to accept leadership responsibilities. Regardless of the outcome of the war, the resettlement of the Gaza Strip remains an important issue. In this war period, the possibility of many options has been eliminated. One of the remaining possibilities is that the responsibility can be transferred to Fatah or a similar Palestinian organization through the initiative of Arab countries, in which financial assistance from Arab countries can be obtained. Hamas is considered to be the Gaza branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt oppose the Muslim Brotherhood so that Hamas will not exist in the new structure and Israel can achieve the goal of eliminating Hamas power in Gaza. So that all partners in this question, including Israel, must respond appropriately.

Iran's entry will expand scope

In modern times, Israel has been the centrepiece of The West Asia, so this war will also affect the whole of West Asia. Arab countries played an important role in the fight against Israel until the 1980s, but neighboring countries such as Egypt, Jordan and Syria withdrew from the conflict in a phased manner after realizing that Israel could not be defeated by military force. Later, countries such as Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates kept their distance from this problem. These countries have begun to expand diplomatic relations with Israel. To fill the void created by this, Iran became the leader of the anti-Israel front. Iran has created a nuisance force in the region by building a coalition of terrorist organizations in Iraq, Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen. The same alliance is now fighting Israel. Israel has killed the leaders of the Hezbollah and Hamas. Also, there are limitations in Iran's actions that will cause significant harm to Israel, which will highlight the limitations of Iran's strength. Still, then leadership against Israel will remain with Iran and it fulfills Iran's ambition to lead the West Asia. Iran's activities through various terrorist groups are expected to continue in the years to come, while the role of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have aligned with Israel, will be questioned. It may create discontent among the people of these countries and they have to take precautions that movements like the Arab Spring do not arise.

After the cancellation of the nuclear deal with the West, Iran is resuming its nuclear program. Now this research will be further strengthened and this will be a headache for the West, including Israel. There is also a possibility that Israel may target Iran's nuclear plants. If Iran develops medium-range missiles, the threat to its nuclear program will increase further.

On the international stage, the actions in the Gaza Strip had strained relations between the USA and Israel, yet the US continued to provide arms aid to Israel and maintained the shield of diplomatic support. Now that Iran has entered the war directly, the USA has also stood firmly with Israel. Britain and Australia have also condemned Iran's attack. The West can openly side with Israel. Iran, on the other hand, has supported Russia in the Ukraine war. Russia can help Iran in this war to get it off the ground. Russia has offered to send fighter jets to Iran. China's response to Iran's missile attack is also eloquent, pointing to Israel's action, saying that Iran's actions violating Lebanon's autonomy cannot be ignored.

Overall, the options offered by the United Nations and the international community on Israeli-Palestinian issues have so far been useless, and new options will now have to be considered to resolve the conflict; For this, the newly created situation on the world stage will also have to be considered, which will lead to a solution to this conflict; Otherwise, this burning issue in the West Asia will continue in the future.