Will the Balance of Power in West Asia Change?

The balance of power in West Asia is likely to change after the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In this changing scenario, Israel’s emergence as a regional power appears almost certain. At the same time, which country will fill the space opposing Israel will play a crucial role in determining the region’s future balance.

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On 28 February, the United States and Israel began air strikes on Iran, once again igniting conflict in West Asia. Iran announced that its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in the Israeli attacks, sending shockwaves across West Asia and the world. Along with Khamenei, several senior officials of Iran’s security establishment were also killed in the strikes.

The consequences of this attack are unlikely to remain limited to the death of Iran’s supreme leader. Khamenei had been the country’s supreme leader for nearly 37 years and held a firm grip over Iran’s political system. Under his leadership, Iran had built a wide sphere of influence across West Asia and had led a regional bloc opposing Israel and the United States. Therefore, his death represents a major shock to a regional balance of power that had existed for nearly four decades.

Earlier, the developments of 1979 and 1980 had long-term consequences for West Asia and shaped the region’s political dynamics for decades. The conflicts that have unfolded over the last two years, combined with the situation emerging after Khamenei’s death, will undoubtedly have a major impact on the region’s future politics.

 

The Legacy of the World Wars

West Asia has remained unstable since the Second World War. However, the roots of this instability go back to the end of the First World War, when the Ottoman Empire collapsed. After the empire’s fall, the then global powers Britain and France promised recognition to several regions as independent states. During this process, artificial borders were drawn.

The creation of Israel further intensified tensions in the region. West Asia’s strategic importance has always remained high because it connects Asia and Europe and possesses vast reserves of crude oil and natural gas. Consequently, global powers—first Britain and later the United States—have always sought to maintain influence over the region.

Local power balances also shaped these dynamics. Israel’s existence has long been perceived as a wound by many in the region, leading to several Arab-Israeli wars. Israel defeated Arab states in these wars, which created widespread resentment among Arab populations. This resentment contributed to military coups in countries such as Iraq, Libya and Syria during the 1960s and 1970s.

Britain completely withdrew from the region in 1971. Around the same time, major oil reserves had been discovered in countries such as Saudi Arabia. During the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Arab oil-producing nations imposed an oil embargo, causing global fuel prices to surge and significantly impacting the world economy.

1979: A Turning Point

Between 1979 and 1980, five major developments occurred in the region whose effects are still visible today.

• Iranian Revolution (1979): In February 1979, the Western-backed Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was overthrown, and an Islamic regime led by Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini came to power.
• Israel–Egypt Peace Treaty (1979): In March 1979, Egypt became the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel, effectively acknowledging Israel’s existence and signaling that defeating Israel militarily was unlikely.
• Mecca Mosque Siege (1979): In November 1979, militants seized the Grand Mosque in Mecca for several days, heightening insecurity within Saudi Arabia’s ruling establishment.
• Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan (1979): The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in December 1979. For the next decade, Soviet forces fought insurgent groups supported by the United States, increasing Pakistan’s strategic importance and contributing to the rise of militant groups.
• Iran–Iraq War (1980–1988): The war between Iran and Iraq began in September 1980 and lasted until 1988, allowing Iran’s Islamic regime to consolidate its control internally.

The Rise of Iran

These five developments clarified the future division of power in West Asia. On one side stood Iran, resisting pressure from the United States and Western powers. On the other side was a bloc led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which maintained close ties with the United States.

Although both blocs opposed Israel, the Saudi-led group remained relatively restrained due to American influence and its limited military capacity. Meanwhile, these countries were gaining economic strength through oil production, increasing their global influence.

This period also saw the emergence of a broader Shia-Sunni geopolitical rivalry. Saudi Arabia led a Sunni bloc, while Iran sought to organize a Shia alliance. Since Shia-majority states are relatively few, Iran instead supported militant and political organizations across various countries.

This strategy led to the rise of groups such as Hamas in Gaza in 1987 and the strengthening of Hezbollah in Lebanon around the same period. As a result, the Palestinian issue gradually moved away from the center of regional politics.

A Period of Turmoil

Over the years, several developments—including the Afghan conflict, the Israel-Palestine dispute, and U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq—shaped public sentiment in the region.

By 2011, growing frustration among populations triggered the Arab Spring uprisings, which resulted in regime changes in several countries. Libya and Syria descended into civil war, while regimes in countries like Saudi Arabia suppressed protests.

Despite the turmoil, regional dynamics continued to evolve. In recent years, the United Arab Emirates established diplomatic relations with Israel under U.S. mediation. Saudi Arabia has also engaged in discussions with Israel. These developments reflect a broader shift, as Gulf states seek to diversify their economies beyond oil and strengthen ties with Western countries and Israel.

The Network of Militant Groups

During the same period, Iran focused on strengthening what Western countries often describe as a network of allied militant groups. This network included Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthi movement in Yemen, and various Shia militias in Iraq. Syria under Bashar al-Assad also remained aligned with Iran.

For years, this network served as one of Iran’s strongest strategic tools. However, over the past few years it has weakened considerably. Hamas and Hezbollah have suffered significant losses in conflicts with Israel. The Houthis have also been weakened. In December 2024, the fall of the Assad regime in Syria dealt a major blow to Iran because Syria had served as a central hub connecting this entire network.

Despite these setbacks, Iran had retained some influence due to public sympathy in parts of West Asia for its opposition to Israel. But with these allied groups weakened and now the death of Khamenei, the regional situation may undergo a dramatic transformation.

Türkiye: A New Player?

Western analysts often divide West Asian states into three categories. The first includes countries with strong institutional systems, such as Israel and Iran. The second group includes states where institutions exist but power remains concentrated in a few individuals—such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The third group includes fragile states with weak or dysfunctional institutions, such as Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.

In terms of military strength, the key regional powers are Israel, Iran, Egypt and Türkiye. Egypt has struggled to stabilize after the 2011 uprising, and Iran’s limitations have become clearer in recent conflicts. This leaves Israel and Türkiye as the most significant military actors.

Pakistan, as a nuclear-armed state, may also play an important role in the evolving regional equation, especially in light of its defense cooperation with Saudi Arabia.

 

Watching the Developments

These countries will play a critical role in shaping future regional power dynamics. In recent years, the United States has shown an inconsistent approach toward West Asia, while China has been attempting to expand its influence in the region.

Israel aims to emerge as the dominant regional power, and it has already achieved considerable success. However, the key question remains: which country will fill the strategic space opposing Israel?

Türkiye is increasingly seen as the most likely candidate. Rising tensions between Israel and Türkiye in Syria reflect this possibility. Türkiye supports the HTS group currently in power in parts of Syria and is also determined to prevent the emergence of an autonomous Kurdish region.

As a member of NATO, Türkiye possesses one of the most professional militaries in the region. At the same time, Israel is wary of a strong neighboring power expanding its influence. Türkiye has already demonstrated its willingness to intervene regionally—supporting the government in Libya in 2020 and backing Azerbaijan during its conflict with Armenia.

Another potential competitor could be the United Arab Emirates. Its increasingly assertive role in Yemen and emerging differences with Saudi Arabia suggest a shifting regional landscape. Meanwhile, the Saudi-Pakistan defense partnership has also raised concerns among several countries.

Finally, much will depend on the internal political future of Iran after Khamenei. The stability—or instability—of Iran’s leadership will significantly shape the region’s strategic direction.

The future of strategically vital West Asia will ultimately depend on how these countries and alliances respond to the changing geopolitical landscape.