A message of Short-Lived Ceasefire of Afghanistan
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Afghan President Ashraf Ghani announced a
ceasefire with Taliban, on 9 June and interestingly Taliban accepted it for the
first phase. So, it was a great relief and a ray of hope for an afghan, which
is in bloodshed-violence for four decades. That move was historical because the
first time since 2001 Taliban accepted the ceasefire. After Ramzan, Ghani
extended the ceasefire, but Taliban rejected. This attempt failed might be
because of multiple factors. Today, in Trump’s era, US wants to withdraw from
Afghanistan entirely, on the other hand, China is trying to increase its
influence in Central Asia through Afghanistan. Pakistan is an important tool
for China and Pakistan also want it to maintain its nuisance value. It is
difficult to say, either the US had not given its cent per cent for Ghani’s
move or China-Pakistan don’t want the ceasefire?
If we see, Afghan history of last four decade,
we can sum up within few words like bloodshed, violence, attack, blast, suicide
bombing etc. Soviet invaded Afghanistan in 1979 and then Mujahidin, all over
from world, fought against Soviet military, Soviet withdrew in 1989, then there
was period of influence less government and rise of Taliban, Taliban regime
and, after 2001, US-NATO led operation to make free Afghanistan from terrorism,
it is all over of these four decades. That’s why Ghani’s announcement and
response from Taliban for the ceasefire are important. When Ghani announced the
ceasefire, both US and China welcomed it. Trump’s assistant Lisa Curtis said,
‘President Trump is making attempt at all level for peace in Afghanistan.
Pakistan also has an important role in it. Therefore, during ceasefire US and
NATO forces also respect this ceasefire and halt operations.’ On other hands,
one Pakistani officer on the condition of anonymity said, ‘China and Pakistan
have played an important role behind this ceasefire. Without a guarantee from
China and Pakistan, Taliban will not involve in any peace talk.’ Neither Afghan
government, China nor Taliban rejected this Pakistani claim. So, it remains
unclear, who was behind Ghani’s announcement? But, China-Pakistan factor
remains important for such happening in Afghanistan.
China is a latecomer in Afghanistan and its
influence has grown in last few years. Initially, it looked like economical
influence, but now it is clear that it was a tactical move. China between 2002
and 2013 gave aid of $ 2.4 billion to Afghanistan; on the other hands, it gave
$ 80 million in 2014 alone. That time, China assured to give $ 80 million for
next three years too. In 2017, China gave $ 90 million for developmental work.
China developed railway track from its Jingus province to Afghan rail port
Hairatan. Hairatan is at the border of central Asia. This railway track is not
economically viable, but it is an option to enter in central Asia. It is a part
of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. China has invested a large amount in mines
copper, aluminium, Iron Ores. China and Pakistan, both already asked
Afghanistan government to join CPEC. So, once economic influence increased, it
is easy to create pressure over Afghanistan government. If we remember, Ghani’s
first foreign visit was China, not the US. It was an indication of this
pressure.
For China, Afghanistan is an important land. To
keep Pakistan’s military influence in Afghanistan, exploit natural resources of
Afghanistan and secure CPEC, these are three basic goals of China’s Afghan
policy. In Afghanistan, China feels US-India-Afghanistan is an equation, which
is becoming influential. To counter this equation, China is trying to create a
new equation China-Pakistan-Russia, with the help of China’s economic power and
nuisance power of Pakistan. China has been skillfully using economic condition
of Afghanistan’s economic condition. Since US invasion has completed 17 years,
but Afghan economy has not developed fully. Total GDP of Afghanistan is still
in between $ 70 billion. The agriculture sector depends on weather condition,
which is hardly favourable and production-service sectors have limited scope.
Afghan GDP grown with 2.7 per cent in 2017. In last 10 years, it was touched
just about 4.5% once and it was because of the presence of more than one lakh
US soldiers in Afghanistan. Now the situation is totally different. US focus is
all about security. Meanwhile, India has done many projects in infrastructures,
dam, and power sector. Indian government built building Afghan government
building. Education is too India’s focus, even India supplies biscuits for
Afghan students, which is helpful for their growth. So far, except India, every
country involved in Afghanistan with own interest and India always ask
Afghanistan, what you want. Therefore, there is a lot of respect for India in
Afghanistan and India is a brand for them. But, Indian governments have many
limitations. That’s why China is trying to fulfil this vacuum. With investing
in Afghan mining sector, China is a biggest foreign investor in Afghanistan.
According to the US, the value of Afghan natural resources is about $ 1
trillion, and Afghanistan government claims, it is more than $ 3 trillion. So,
Chinese investment is an important thing for the Afghan government and China is
now using this influence. China has indicated many times that no interest to
involve militarily in Afghanistan, at least as an ally of US or NATO. But,
according to Afghanistan defence ministry, ‘we are building a new military base
in Badaxan province, with the economic help of China.’ It is not clear, whether
PLA will use it or not. But, China is not far away from defence activities in
Afghanistan. In December 2017, China organized China-Pakistan-Afghanistan
conference. It was a move to dilute tension between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
In 2015, China tried actively to initiate discussion with Taliban. Therefore,
this time too, China might be involved in this ceasefire. The situation of
Afghanistan is so complex that, countries like Pakistan, China, Russia, Iran
openly support the Afghan government and covertly communicate with Taliban.
According to one report, Ceasefire short-lived because there was a difference
between Taliban leaders in Quetta and field leaders. But, elements in Pakistani
system have influence over Taliban leadership and they could influence them.
Question is, these countries really want a ceasefire which is prestigious for
Afghan and US government. If we try to find an answer to it, it leads towards
growing influence of China. Because, the Afghan government is ready to
talk with Taliban, just they want Taliban to recognize Afghan government. But,
Taliban leadership says, the Afghan government is a pupil of US and they want
with US government directly or the US should withdraw totally, which is
impossible for today. Taliban don’t want to give any credit of withdrawal of US
to the Afghan government. So, Pakistan has the influence on Taliban and China
have on Pakistan. But, both of these countries, why didn’t try to make success
for this ceasefire? Its answer is, their intention…
(Original Article Published in Maharashtra
Times, on 01 July 2018. You can see it here - https://maharashtratimes.indiatimes.com/editorial/ravivar-mata/lets-talk-about-short-lived-weapons/articleshow/64808082.cms)
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