After Afghanistan, a red signal from Maldives

A few days back, Maldives inked MoU in power sector, with Pakistan. The Maldives was used to take guidance from India in each policy and decision, but now it is under great influence of China-Pakistan nexus. Pakistan is a helping hand for Economic-Military power China, to expand their influence in Indian Ocean region. The Maldives is an example of it.

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Maldives delegation visited Pakistan a few days ago and both countries inked MoU in power sector. According to this MoU, Pakistan will help the Maldives with Human training, participation in staff exchange programmes, participation in experience sharing and institution building activities etc. So far, India played ample role in building infrastructure in the Maldives. Interestingly, PM Narendra Modi a few months ago announced about 100 per cent of electrification of all 7.5 lakhs Indian villages and till February, Lahore had 12 hours load shading. These are facts and still, Maldives government choose an option of Pakistan for co-operation in the Power sector. The reason behind this MoU is not about what mentioned in MoU, but the real thing is Maldives policies have been changing since last few years and it is inclining towards Pakistan and China.

The Maldives is country of 4 lakh populations and it comprises about 1200 islands. In many aspects, it is too little country to consider in the international arena. But, we look at its geopolitical position; we could understand its importance. Most busy Sea Lines of Communications (SLOC), from the Gulf of Aden and Strait of Hormuz, passes through the Maldives. It comprises two third of total global oil transportation and about 50 per cent of trade. India’s 97 exports depend on sea transport and it values about 70 per cent of export revenue. Therefore, each of the happenings of Maldives is important for the world, including India.

Maldives is around 700 KM away from Indian mainland and India has helped a lot as like other neighbouring countries. British left the Maldives in 1965 and after liberation, India was third nation, after the UK and Sri Lanka, with whom the Maldives established diplomatic relations. (China didn’t have its embassy in the Maldives till 2012). India has contributed to the development of tourism sector, infrastructures, even in the society of Maldives. India has very warm relations during three decades rules of Mamoon Abdul Gayyum. India crushed revolt against Gayyum, in 1988 and takes care for the stable Maldives. Even three years back, there was a problem in Male’s water purification plant and Indian navy with drinking water reached shores of Maldives within a couple of hours. After Gayyum, Mohammad Nasheed became president and relation between both countries remains warm. According to data of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, in 2012, 28 thousand Indian were living in the Maldives and were contributing to Health, Construction, Education sectors. The Maldives had 400 doctors and 125 of them were Indians. Even, 25 per cent of their teachers are Indian.

After 2012, relation changed dramatically. Nasheed gave contract of construction of an airstrip to Indian firm GMR. But, there were might be a conspiracy and Nasheed found guilty in Court. He has to leave the office. The new government scrapped the contract and in November 2012 this contract gave to a Chinese company. Since then the China-Pakistan factor begins to grow in the Maldives.

Even before MoU in power sector, Maldives and Pakistan have signed some agreements in the defence sector too. Pakistan’s Military chief Qamar Jawed Bajwa visited the Maldives in March 2018. Both countries agreed to do joint patrol in their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) in the Indian Ocean. Their agreement includes co-operation in anti-terrorism activities. So, Maldives anti-terrorism department may work with Pakistan’s counterpart. These both things have something to concern for India. India and Maldives EEZ are very close to each other. So far, India-Maldives does joint patrol and India gives help of each kind to them. India is planning to build a chain of RADAR on Maldives shore, wish to give helicopter like DHRUV. But, Maldives is still moving towards Pakistan-China. Even Maldives government returned one of DHRUV helicopter. According to one report, Maldives want Dornier plane and India is wishing to give one more DHRUV helicopter. This is not a just disagreement, something more.

Roots of Pakistan’s entry in the Maldives are in growing influence of China. Likewise in Afghanistan, Chinese interests are high in the Maldives and it is using Pakistan to fulfil these interests. Maldives and China signed the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in December 2017. After Pakistan, Maldives is the second South Asian country, which has FTA with China. This agreement gives a push to China’s Maritime Silk Route programme. Due to this FTA, China’s 95 per cent of export to the Maldives will be with 0 tariff. So the Maldives will cost about $4 million of revenue. But, creation and expansion of new trade, will benefit the Maldives, as China claims. Also, China assures to co-operate in tourism, fishery and finance sector too. The Maldives expects an increase in export of fish to China. But, opposition alleges, the draft of this FTA has not shown to parliament Members too. As per these allegations, Maldives allows giving 16 islands to China. In total, China is using it’s ‘debt trap’ policy here too. Nasheed alleged in an interview, ‘out of loan on the Maldives, 70 per cent is borrowed from China and volume of its interest is about 20 per cent of GDP of Maldives.’ So far, India was building infrastructure and European countries facilitate the hospitality business. But, China is replacing both countries. Even numbers of Chinese tourist has been increasing for some years. China knew the geopolitical importance of Maldives very well and China’s intention to take advantage of it. It is an open secret. Britain had a Naval base in the Maldives till 1978. The US still has a strong naval base at Diego Garcia. So, US has it’s an eye on movements in the Indian Ocean region. But, China didn’t have such a base. Since 2000, China is trying to create such base in the Maldives. This might be the main reason behind the conspiracy to remove Nasheed. Two years back, China-Maldives signed an agreement to build an observatory at one of Maldives island. The Maldives claims it’s a just agreement to build an observatory, but hesitate to show this agreement to India. In August 2017, Maldives allowed China’s 3 warships to dock its shore. It is a thing of concern for India.

During the period of current president Abdulla Yameen, an influence of India-US is going down and China is replacing this vacuum. A few months back, Maldives sent envoys to some ‘friendly nations’. These countries were Pakistan, China and Saudi Arabia only, not India or the US. During this period, Yameen intentionally downplays India’s role. Yameen declared an emergency in February 2018. Then, Nasheed asked India to do a military intervention. So, the relation between both countries soured. A few days back, India declined to allow, one Maldive Parliament member for his medical checkup. The Maldives retaliates with stopping work permit to Indians. In those days, ‘Indians no need to apply’ is an additional line in Maldives advertisement. Extremism is also growing in the Maldives and many youths from the Maldives have gone to Syria. This is a thing of concern for any neighbouring country.

Likewise Afghanistan in the Maldives too, an influence of Pakistan-China is increasing and it is enough to show challenges for India in its own South Asia. Extremism in the Maldives and growing terrorist activities in the southern part of Nepal, a future danger for India may come from Maldives or Nepal, not from Pakistan or China. In this situation, to response China’s debt trap policy, India has to use its Market size advantage. Today’s trade war may be an opportunity. According to some experts, the first phase of this trade war will be beneficial for south Asian countries and it may create more space in European or other markets. In such condition, India should deal like a leader of South Asia. India policy should be like, ‘if other bigger countries want to expand in the Indian Market, then they should consider other south Asian countries too. And, south Asian countries should aware, without India, they will not get this business and trade opportunity.’ In today’s world, India should understand the growing aspirations of small countries too. Otherwise, these countries have an option of China’s debt trap and it is neither for a benefit for them nor in the interest of India.  

(Original article published in Maharashtra Times, Pune on 15 July 2018, you can see it here -

https://maharashtratimes.indiatimes.com/editorial/ravivar-mata/maldivess-red-light/articleshow/64989348.cms )