Mind game of South China Sea

Last week, in the South China Sea a Chinese destroyer challenged USS destroyer and there was nearly a collision. This was not a new thing in US-China in the South China Sea. China has considerable military strength in the region and now, it is challenging the US. The probability of war in the region may be little, but both countries deterring each other and trying to increase their influence.

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‘China is now capable of controlling the South China Sea in all scenarios short of war with the United States…’ it was a statement of Admiral Davidson, who currently leads the US Indo-Pacific command. He was speaking in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee. Before the dust come down, South China Sea witnessed one more tens event. Chinese destroyer challenged USS destroyer and it almost hit. This ship passed by only 41 meters from US Ship. This is not a new thing in the South China Sea. But, thanks to the Trade War, the tension between the US and China is at peak and therefore such things get a new meaning. One message is clear from this event and it is China has been trying to challenge the US in each sector.

China’s ambitions have been increasing and claim on the South China Sea is a part of it. Last decade, China has claimed the almost total territory of the South China Sea. This sea is an important corridor, which connects the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific Ocean. This sea, which has an area of 1.4 million square miles, is one of the most important trade routes. It has strategic value too. Therefore, US always keep its presence in the region and China doesn’t want US naval presence there. If we think about traffic through this route and natural resources, we can understand it’s importance. Almost all ships which pass through Malacca strait goes through the South China Sea. It means one-third of total sea traffic and 50 per cent of cargo traffic goes through the South China Sea. For East Asia, this is an ‘energy’ route. Oil tankers passing through this Sea, fulfils two third energy need of South Korea, 60 per cent of each Japan and Taiwan. Meanwhile, this number goes up to 80 per cent for China. Even in 2017, China’s 40 per cent natural gas came through this route only. (That’s why China has Malacca phobia. Malacca Strait is a few hundred miles from India’s Andaman-Nicobar. China fears, if India blocks Malacca Strait, China’s total energy supply may get stuck and hence total China’s economy. Therefore, China has been concentrating on CPEC.) Numbers of oil tankers, passes through the South China Sea, are much more than other busy passages like the Suez Canal or Panama Canal. Oil tankers passing through the South China Sea are three times more than that of Suez Canal. This route is also an important trade route for China. Last year, China has done a trade of almost $ 3370 billion through this route. So, South China Sea is an important region for the Chinese economy.

Even, this region’s potential for natural resources is untapped. According to one statistics, this region has reserves of almost 7 billion barrel crude oil and billions of Cubic feet of Natural gas. China claims reserves of Crude oil may be 130 billion barrels. Then, it could be a new ‘Arabian Peninsula’. No other agency supports China’s claim about crude oil reserve. But, this could be a critical region for China’s energy need. Because China has only 1.1 per cent of reserve of crude oil and it consumes 10 per cent of energy by comparing with total global energy consumption. With this inverse proportion of availability and consumption of energy, China needs more resources to maintain current growth. So, South China Sea is an important factor in this scenario and if need, it is ready to challenge the international system. For each country, the territorial water limit is 12 nautical miles and Exclusive Economic Zone limit is up to 300 nautical miles. For the South China Sea, China doesn’t obey any such rule. Just after the communist revolution, China had declared ‘9 dash lines’ and South China Sea region is one of them. Till the last two decade, China was not so aggressive for this region. Now the situation has changed. For the South China Sea, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnams, Brunei, even Taiwan are another players. Their claims differ with geography and their interests. But, China claims almost 80 per cent of the whole region. On the other hand, US views this region is free international water. So, any country can be free here. International Court ruled against China’s claim, in 2016. But, it made no difference for China. China has increased its military presence with a plan. They have formed naval bases on many islands, even they created an artificial island. Basic infrastructure has increased tremendously. ‘China’s military capability is rising with a momentum, so it will challenge the US on each front,’ told Admiral Harry Harris, Davidson’s predecessor, US Congress. Last week gave a glance at this fear of Harris.

The tension between US-China over the South China Sea is, now, not a new thing. US ships used to visit this region and China is trying to show, we don’t like it. So, after last week event, both countries published statements and accused each other. Meanwhile, one week before, US bomber B-52 flies over the sky of South China Sea. The US claimed, it was a routine sortie. And the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s reaction was, ‘any such plane or warship can’t deter us.’ A few days back, visit of US defence Secretary James Mattis has cancelled. Even China didn’t allow US warship Wasp to visit Hong Kong port. China accuses, ‘The US always organize naval events in this region with Japan, Australia, Britain, France and India. These activities are aggressive in nature.’ And, US don’t feel anything aggressive in it and China wrongly feels these routine activities as provocative.

Both the US and China don’t want war in near future. But, both keep trying to maintain and grow influence. The South China Sea is not an exception for this. So, tense environment and ‘Tit for Tat’ will be routing news from this region and it always keeps the possibility of ‘accidental war’. But, no one is sure about it. With co-operation of Vietnam, India is exploring oil resources in the region. China has opposed it. India too wants to increase relation and trade with East Asian nations, so freedom of navigation in this region is crucial. Therefore we have to keep a close watch on each happening.

(Original article published in Maharashtra Timses, dated on 14 october 2018, you can see it here too... https://maharashtratimes.indiatimes.com/editorial/ravivar-mata/american-and-chinese-warships-narrowly-avoid-high-seas-collision/articleshow/66197191.cms)