It could not be end of Islamic State
Syrian Democratic
Forces (SDF), in the last week of March, took over the Baghouz, which is the
last bastion of Islamic State (IS) in Syria. With this success, SDF announced
the end of IS in Syria and the way IS, which was the most dangerous concern in
global politics for this decade. Western countries welcomed this announcement.
Although, geographical existence of IS in Syria, is no more now. But, we can’t
dare to claim the danger of IS has finished. Because IS have weaved this
network in the last 7-8 years and they took every advantage of political
anarchy of the Syrian conflict. So, to root out them, the world should work for
a comprehensive political solution. Otherwise, today’s condition will give
birth to a new grave problem.
For the Arab world, the
year 2011 was a turning point. Like other countries in the region, there was an
Arab Spring protest in Syria. Assad family has been ruling in Syria, for more
than 4 decades and such protest was not new for them. Syria is a Sunni majority
country, which comprises 10 per cent Alwite Shiite. Assads are Alwite Shiite
and still, they are ruling this country. They have a strong grip over the
military and do anything to crunch what is against them. Cities like Hama,
Homs, have such memories of atrocities, what Assad did in the 1980s. In the
beginning, protest in 2011 was also peaceful. But, within a few days, it went
violent. Many groups were involved in that protest and they have different
intention against Assad government. With different intention, a different group
of countries helps them. Countries from the USA and its western allies, to
Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, each one has its own interest in Syria. So, it
increased the complexions of the situation.
To take advantage of
this anarchy, Al Qaeda entered Syria. Jabhat al Nusra (Now, Jabhat al-Sham),
affiliated to Al Qaeda, was active. The ambition of the Islamic State of Iraq
(ISI), another group affiliated to Al Queda and was active in Iraq, had
increased and wished to enter Syria. Al Queda didn’t allow them and ISI broke
their ties with Al Queda. In comparison with other groups, ISI expands rapidly
and within few months they renamed as Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (or the
Levant, ISIS or ISIL). On 4th June 2014, ISIS overtook Mosul, which second
large city of Iraq. On 29th 2014, they announced Caliphate too and renamed ISIS
to Islamic State (IS). Till then, Assad had only support from Iran.
When it was at its
peak, IS controlled area about 80 thousand square kilometres and the population
in that region was around 8 million. Smuggling of Oil, robbery, abduction, with
some taxes and other things, IS had a corpus of billions of dollars. With the
new technology and the internet, IS was attracting Muslim youth from all over
the world. Thousands of youth either joined IS in Syria or they are in contact
them. According to some data, more than 35 thousand terrorists of IS was active
in this region and out of them, more than 6 thousand was foreigners. With the
contacts in all over, IS managed to make blasts and attacks in Europe,
Australia, Afghanistan, African countries and many places, through radicalized
youth. Lone wolf attacks and attacks with Truck or vehicle has become a new
trend in terrorist attacks. It underlines, how IS is more dangerous than other
terrorist groups. As this danger was increasing, especially after the Paris
attack, fight against IS becomes more prior. At the same time, Russia entered
on this canvass to help Assad and these all events changed all things. With the
coordinated efforts, IS declines since 2016. IS lost its last inch of land in
Iraq in June 2017 and now SDF, which is fighting with the help of the USA,
dispersed IS from Syrian Land.
IS was the supreme priority for every nation
and group-organisations, which is involved in Syria. Now, Syria is IS-free.
But, if we claim all over success, then it could be a hurry. When IS was
losing, it already shifted their bases to Afghanistan and African countries.
With the contact of new youths and reviving old network, we can’t ignore the
danger of the IS. It means, IS is now a multi-national terrorist organization
like Al-Queda. So, with the coordination with groups from many countries, the
capacity of assault of the terrorist remains. We should remember one thing
that, when SDF was engaged in Bagouz, it didn’t face much retaliation. Means,
more than 10 to 12 thousand sleeper cells of IS have mixed with Syrian
population and could emerge out to carry assault. In January, there were some
attacks to target the US troops, it could be a trailer of the future.
Bashar Al Assad told in
an interview, in 2014, that, ‘this is not a war between militaries of two
countries. Our enemy has hidden in cities, society. So, this conflict will not
end soon, this war will remain for the next few years.’ We may differ with
views about Assad, but to understand IS and the Syrian conflict, his quote is
sufficient.
Another important
factor in the Syrian conflict is migration. Almost every family lost their
relatives. Millions of Syrian people have migrated, it means intra-nation and
to the other part of the world too. Now, Syrian cities mean debris only. So, to
bring back and rehabilitate these Syrian migrants should be the supreme
priority of International Agencies. Otherwise, it could be a new problem.
In fighting against IS,
many groups which were enemy till they were together, e. g. Turkey and Kurd.
Now, IS is no more, Trump has announced to bring back the US troops from Syria,
it means there will be a political vacuum and each group-country will try to
occupy it. So, there will be Turkey-Kurd conflict, Israel’s reservation about
Iran, increasing ambition of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Saudi ambition to replace
Alwite Assad with the Sunni regime, maybe new fronts of conflicts on this
canvass. So, although it is an end of IS, the future of Syria, will be lies
around how world weaved political solution and how we solve problems of
migrants.
Original article published in Maharashtra Times, on
31 March 2019. You can see it here –
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