Pakistan's farce of peace

Pakistan announced its national security policy last week. The policy calls for 100 years of peace with neighbouring countries. It wants peace with India and resumes trade between the two countries. Pakistan's economy is on the brink of bankruptcy, with a heavy debt burden on it and heavy international pressure has been mounted on Pakistan. The dual role of Pakistan is not new, as it continues to feed the terrorists on the one hand and to paint a picture of ongoing peace efforts on the other. The nexus of Pakistan and China poses a threat to India's national security on both sides of the border, and unless Pakistan abandons its policy on the issue of terrorism, there is no reason for India to look into such a farce of peace.

 

Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan announced the national security policy a few days ago. This policy has a total of 100 pages. Of these, 50 pages have been declared and 50 pages have been kept confidential. Pakistan has said that economic ties are at the heart of the policy. A Pakistani official said he was looking at the policy as a guideline for Pakistan's foreign, international and defence policy. This policy will be reviewed annually. It was also clarified that the new government may change this policy. Also, while resuming trade with India, a final settlement has not been reached on the Kashmir issue, yet the language of resumption of trade is expressed in it.

 

Relations between India and Pakistan have been strained for the last 70 years. Pakistan has consistently tried to tarnish the image of India over Kashmir, terrorism, infiltration borders and arms embargo violations on the LOC. Since India declared Jammu and Kashmir as a Union Territory, tensions between the two countries have risen again since August 2019. Following India's decision, Pakistan has downgraded diplomatic relations with India. Inside, peace has been restored. Peace attempts from Pakistan are not new for India. On the one hand, in 1999, when Nawaz Sharif announced the Lahore Accord, the Pakistani army was preparing for war by infiltrating Kargil. The two countries had signed a ceasefire at the LOC in 2003. However, Pakistan continued to violate the ceasefire and made sure that there was no peace. Terrorist activities continue unabated, many attacks on India, including the Parliament in 2001, Mumbai in 2008, have been carried out by Pakistan-inspired terrorists. In recent times, in 2017, Pakistan's army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa had once again promised to implement the ceasefire. In 2020 and 2021, Pakistan's Prime Minister Imran Khan and Bajwa have repeatedly called for peace. Economic tensions and the international image are both trying to show that Pakistan wants a new peace.

 

Pakistan's economy is currently going through a challenging situation. Pakistan's economy is under continuous pressure due to debt burden, debt repayment pressure, economic slowdown and falling foreign exchange reserves. Pakistan currently has a debt of over 100 billion USD. Of this, Pakistan has to repay at least 10 billion to 12 billion USD annually. Fuel and other imports are also large. The Central Bank of Pakistan has to work hard to maintain the foreign exchange reserves required for both. China is helping them with it. But this is the next step of China’s debt trap. Moreover, the tensions created by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) are making the economy more volatile. The FATF has maintained pressure on Pakistan for not stopping aid to terrorists. Pakistan is struggling to comply with the rules of the International Financial Institutions. As a result, the means of getting help from them have diminished. For all this, Pakistan needs to change its image.

 

Trade with India is also important for Pakistan. Despite tensions between the two countries, trade was growing slowly. Exports from India to Pakistan increased from 1.92 billion USD in 2017-18 to 2.07 billion USD in 2018-19. In comparison, imports from Pakistan to India were. 48.856 crore USD in 2017-18 and. 49.487 crore USD in 2018-19. Commodities exported from India to Pakistan included cotton, bio-chemicals, plastics, dyes, machinery. So, imports from Pakistan to India mainly included some minerals, fruits, salt and cement. However, in 2019, the level of relations between the two countries decreased and after that trade also declined. A few months back, Pakistan had announced its intention to re-import cotton from India. The decline in cotton production had hit the local textile industry hard. Cotton from the US and Brazil was expensive and would take a long time to supply. Therefore, it was convenient for Pakistan to import from India.

 

Aside from the economic benefits, it is also important for Pakistan to build an international image. At the international level, too, Pakistan wants to make its position that it is no longer a country pursuing terrorism. Under the Taliban regime, Pakistan has sought to project its image internationally. However, its successes are limited. From that, it seems that Pakistan has once again started trying to give a voice of peace. Relations between Pakistan and China have always posed a challenge to India's security. It is easy for China to take Pakistan by the hand to take action against India and maintain its presence in Afghanistan and West Asia. This is a simple and cheap weapon for China. So, for Pakistan, China is a guarantee of security. At the heart of all these equations is the issue of action against India.

 

At present, only Turkey and China appear to be on Pakistan's side. Pakistan's traditional allies Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have distanced themselves. Pakistan is angry at the UAE for inviting India to the Muslim Cooperation Council in the UAE. However, Pakistan-Saudi Arabia ties at its low, because Pakistan is reluctant for involvement in the operation in Yemen. Pakistan was also seen trying to form a group of Muslim countries against Saudi Arabia, holding hands with ambitious countries like Turkey and Iran. As a result, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have also put pressure on Pakistan to repay its loans. This is increasing economic pressure on Pakistan.

 

From this situation, Pakistan has started a new drama, trying to make peace. Pakistan's President Zia-ul-Haq had used the language of bloodshed against India with a thousand cuts. Officials and leaders of Zia's tenure have come to power in Pakistan today. Therefore, there is no need to believe in any guarantee from Pakistan. At present, Pakistan needs to make peace with India to survive. There is no doubt that in the future, when there is a need to take action against India, Pakistan will again resort to terrorist activities.